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Oxford Economic Highlights from Updated Reports
The rapid spread of the coronavirus and the associated isolation policies implemented to contain the outbreak have led to a significant disruption in economic activity. Services activity has seen the brunt of the impact, but manufacturing has also been hit.
Global manufacturing output is expected to remain weak in Q2 before a swift rebound is seen in the second half of this year as the spread of the virus slows and isolation restrictions are eased, leading to the release of pent-up demand as business confidence increases.
The oil market is still reeling from a severe demand and supply shock. For now, we assume that oil prices remain low enough for long enough to force significant cutbacks in US production.
Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction, and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2020, falling by 2.3%, picking up to 5.2% growth in 2021.
Manufacturing output is expected to contract 2.7% in 2020, driven by a decline in the motor vehicles & parts sector. In 2021, manufacturing output is forecast at 6.1% growth, again driven by growth in the motor vehicles & parts sector.
Extraction output is expected to fall 1% in 2020, driven by a decline in the non-fuel extraction activities sector. Next year, extraction output is forecast at 1.1%, driven by the oil & natural gas extraction sector. Construction output is expected to increase by 0.5% in 2020 and 3.6% in 2021.
The service sector is expected to expand 0.2% in 2020, driven by growth in the health care and social work sector. In 2021, service sector output growth is forecast at 3.9%, driven by growth in the other business services sector.
The value of industrial production in 2019 was US$3,055.6bn at 2015 prices. Within this, the largest sectors were utilities (US$322.2bn), food (US$279.4bn) and chemicals excluding pharmaceuticals (US$231.7bn).
Over the next decade industrial production is projected to remain broadly stable as a share of GDP, and fall as a share of global output, as growth in developed economies is forecast to lag that of the emerging markets.
The fastest-growing industrial sectors over the next decade are expected to be high-tech goods, pharmaceuticals, and other transport equipment. The slowest growing sectors are expected to be wearing apparel & furs, leather goods, and textiles.
Oxford Economics Special Reports
New Reports Added
NFPA and Oxford Economics have partnered for some time now to supply NFPA members with the latest global economic trends and forecasts through a variety of different reports. On occasion, Oxford Economics also produces special reports that offer additional analysis and opinions surrounding global economic events that could possibly reshape global trends and projections. Oxford Economics has agreed to allow exclusive access to these reports to NFPA members.
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Current List of Reports Available for Download
- Research Briefing: ISM Manufacturing – March 2020
- Research Briefing: Timely Forecasts Essential Amid Coronavirus Uncertainty
- Research Briefing: How Lockdowns Are Strangling The Global Economy
- Research Briefing: The Economic Cost Of Coronavirus Lockdowns
- Research Briefing: Congress To Deliver An Essential $2tn Coronavirus Lifeline
- Research Briefing: The Global Economy Enters A Short, Sharp, Recession
- Webinar Deck: US Economic Outlook – Coronavirus Outbreak Leads To Global Recession
- Research Briefing: Profound, Pervasive and Persistent – Recession Is Here
NFPA’s Global Market Reports and Forecasts Update
NFPA’s Global Market Reports and Forecasts are a collection of monthly and quarterly global market reports that will allow you to investigate every angle of our global marketplace.
Prepared by Oxford Economics, these reports are an exclusive benefit for all NFPA members and must remain within your company. Five types of reports are available and the following have been updated.
Global Industry Forecasts, which are quarterly reports that examine nine key customer markets and include market analysis for 68 countries and market forecasts for 68 countries. Global Industry Briefings, which are monthly reports that examine nine customer markets and include the latest developments in key world economies and month-to-month output numbers & forecasts.
By-Country Briefings and Forecasts, which are quarterly country-specific reports that examine 68 individual countries and include a global macro summary, detailed data and analysis of customer markets, and customer market forecasts.
World Economic Prospects Reports, which are monthly reports that examine the economic situation and prospects for a variety of countries with at-a-glance charts, long-term forecasts, and facts of each countries place in the world.
Filed Under: News